Assignment SLP part 1

Scenario: You are a consultant for the Diligent Consulting Group (DCG). You have completed the first assignment, developing and testing a forecasting method that uses Linear Regression (LR) techniques (Module 2 Case). However, the consulting manager at DCG wants to try a different forecasting method as well. Now you decide to try Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) to forecast sales.

Calculate the MAPE for Year 2 Linear Regression forecast (use the first spreadsheet tab labeled “Year 2 Forecast – MAPE”).

Calculate forecasted sales for Year 2 using SES (use the second spreadsheet tab labeled “SES – MAPE”). Use 0.15 and 0.90 alphas.

Compare the MAPE calculated for the LR forecast (#1 above) with the MAPEs calculated using SES.

Then write a report to your boss in which you discuss the results obtained above. Using calculated MAPE values, make a recommendation concerning which method appears to be more accurate for the Year 2 data: SES or Linear Regression.

Assignment SLP part 2 Written Report

Length requirements: 4-pages (not including Cover and Reference pages) of written discussion and analysis.

· Provide a brief introduction to the problem and background of the problem.

· Complete a written analysis that supports your Excel analysis, discussing the assumptions, rationale, and logic used to complete your SES forecast.

· Give complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s) relating to whether LR or SES is more accurate in predicting sales.

· Avoid redundancy and general statements